ASIA IN 21ST CENTURY

In 1556, Michele de Nostradame wrote about this prediction, “In the year 2025, China, having completed her industrial and economic expansion, will absorb the whole of Northern Russian and Scandinavia."

In 1997, IMF predicted that China's economy would be larger than the economies of USA and European Union by 2010. Most economists agree that China - not Japan - will be the dominating force in Asia in the 21st century. They expect that by 2010, China's economy will be three times bigger than Japan's.

While Japan has limited land and almost no natural resources, China has plenty of both. With the largest population in the world at 1.3 billion, China has unlimited human sources. Moreover, it has become the world's manufacturer of various goods. In short China has all it takes to become a superpower not only in Asia, but in the whole world.

Richer Asian countries like Japan and South Korea, with their higher standards of living, can't compete with China's low prices. As a result, Japanese and South Koreans build factories in China and that they have to work hard to maintain political relationship with China. In return, China wants their technology and access to their rich consumers.

While most economist think this century will be China's, some people disagree. They say that China's formula of mixing limited free enterprise with the communist style central control is a recipe for disaster. Capitalism works best when businesses are free to make their own decisions, but in China, all decisions are made by the central government.

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DISCUSSION QUESTIONS:

1. Most economic experts think that China will become the leader of Asia by 2015, but others disagree. Which do you think is right?

2. What do you think of China's formula of mixing capitalism (free enterprise) with communism? Can a communist country with strict control over businesses ever become an economic powerhouse in the world?

3. Would you see a unified Asia with a common currency similar to the European Economic Community?

4. What are the future goals of China's present leaders?

5. Will Chinese ever be richer than Japanese, South Koreans or Taiwanese?

6. What will happen to Taiwan in the future? Will it become a part of China again?

7. What is going to happen to North Korea? Will it be absorbed by the democratic South or will it stay independent, communist and poor?

8. China promised to let Hongkong be economically and politically independent for 50 years since 1997. After 50 years, will Hongkong become a socialist state too or will it keep its democratic system?

9 Would North Korea ever invade South Korea again knowing that China would not help as it did in 1950? Would China help North Korea invade the South again?

10. What is going to happen to Japan in century? Will they be still the richest country in Asia?